weather adjustment as a society

[burntcopper]

Achieved hat that actually covers my ears and looks halfway decent. Which makes me ponder if this weather (cold winters with snow) continues, how long the UK will take to adjust and take it in stride so everyone just goes 'oh. snow.' without it disrupting transport or work. Problem being that mass (electric) transport/motorways in the UK didn't exist the last time we had regular heavy snow in winter across the country, they only came in *after* the weather started getting warmer, so weren't built to cope with it. Hence why we don't have many snowploughs, wheel chains, or bloody great snowshovels in every garage. My parents are the only people in our street to own a proper snowshovel, and that's because they lived in Oklahoma.

It's relatively easy for individuals to adjust to cosmetic stuff. Since last winter, people are stocking up on more practical clothing and learning what kind of footwear is good for walking on ice and snow. Similar for buying blankets and getting insulation, as well as getting road salt and snowshovels. What I'm pondering is infrastructure. It's all very well to moan about the local councils not having sufficient snowploughs like in Russia, but snow ploughs are seriously expensive, and simply not worth buying if deep snow isn't a regular event. And as for rail, the rail network isn't even built to cope with wet autumns that frost over, or hot summers. Which we've been able to rely on for the last few decades.

So has anyone done any forecasts on how long it would take for society to adjust?

In related news, taking Meg up on her offer of the sofa bed tonight as have theatre expedition tomorrow to Legally Blonde and I don't really want to risk the rail network. last time they had warning, it was screwed. Course, this means I will have to buy clothing and makeup and will probably find that the rail network coped fine... I wouldn't have given a flying fuck and just stayed home if it wasn't for the theatre factor.

Comments

[gmh.livejournal.com]

No doubt a warmer atmosphere would lead to increased precipitation, but that doesn't necessarily correlate directly to an increase in extreme weather events.

A few points to consider here:

Firstly, global data on extreme weather events pre-1965 is based on local observation; it was only with the Nimbus and Seasat projects that the modern science of remote sensing really took off; and a remote sensing satellite is capable of telling you far more over a far larger area than the previous methods; and to a far greater degree of accuracy.

(The data we got to play with at UCL included stuff from ERS-1; some of my then colleagues were later involved with Envisat.)

As such; the baseline frequency of events pre-1965 is sometimes based on anecdotal rather than exhaustive observation.

Secondly, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) states that there is as yet no firm evidence for a global increase in extreme events, but that there is quite possibly a causal link between the increase in the annual frequency of extreme events in the North Atlantic region in the period 1990-2007 as opposed to the period 1850-1990.

Thirdly, while the frequency of extreme events has not yet shown a clear trend (which may yet manifest under greater warming), there is some correlation between the sea surface temperature (SST) and observed increase in the number of Category 4/5 events in the North Atlantic during the period 1970-2004. There is not currently enough data to make a firm conclusion on this (see the argument between Trenberth/Webster+Holland versus Gray/Landsea on this subject); however, all parties agree that more study is needed.

The IPCC's position is that some degree of causative link between SST and North Atlantic events is probable - it will be interesting to see what AR5 says on the subject.

A single weather event is evidence of nothing, climate-wise; but a measureable trend is a lot more significant.

(cut for length - part two below!)